Friday, October 16, 2015

Winter weather prediction under El Nino

Winter Outlook 2015-2016: Cold, Wet South and Warm, Dry North, Says NOAA.
"A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale."
Other influences that may play a role this winter are the Arctic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. 

It is important to remember that this forecast is for the winter season as a whole and does not project when and where storms may occur."

As far as precipitation goes...Our neck of the woods might be on the cusp of wetter than average or drier than average:-)"The East Coast, from the Southeast into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England, may also see a wetter than average winter."

Of course, for Maine, the Arctic Oscillation plays a huge role in climate. "The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern characterized by the strength of counterclockwise winds around the Arctic. Its positive phase confines cold air to the polar regions, while its negative phase is associated with cold air penetrating farther south, as well as an increased chance of nor'easters."

So, only time will tell as to what our winter season will be like this year. I think it is safe to say that climate prediction is still in its infancy and Mother Nature is full of surprises...